The Brexit divorce bill: what's left to pay?

Summary

By the end of 2025 Britain had paid £25.7 billion under the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, after money coming back. That is £42.2 billion paid out since February 2020, less £16.5 billion that came back from older EU programmes and from the European Investment Bank.S1

The Treasury says about £5.3 billion, after money coming back, is still to come. The largest item is the UK’s share of EU staff pensions, which the Treasury forecasts will run to 2065.S1S2S3 The Treasury counts those future pensions at today’s value; the Office for Budget Responsibility does not, and the Treasury’s own figures put the difference from that one choice at £11.2 billion.S1S6

The early estimates were higher. In 2017 the EU’s chief negotiator was reportedly putting the bill at nearly €60 billion, according to a House of Lords committee.S7 The government’s December 2017 estimate was £35 billion to £39 billion, which the National Audit Office called reasonable, and the OBR’s March 2018 figure was £37.1 billion.S1S4S5S6 The Treasury says the comparison is not like for like: those estimates assumed a March 2019 exit, and the extra ten months as an ordinary member cost £6.9 billion. Adding that back gives £37.9 billion, inside the original range.S1

Checking is spread across several bodies: the Treasury’s own invoice checks, the European Court of Auditors for the EU’s accounts, and the National Audit Office. The Treasury’s statement says there is no single UK auditor of the whole settlement, and that one disputed budget item, “Global Margins for Commitments”, is still under discussion with the EU.S2S1